186282@ud0s4.net
2024-10-14 04:31:26 UTC
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China has kind-of repeated this ... it LOOKS like
their ultimate strategy against Taiwan will be a
BLOCKADE - sea and air - to largely starve them
out - rather than a direct invasion.
Running this blockade will be very risky. Few
if any commercial ships will dare, same with
air transport. US/Etc military ships and planes
MAY risk it, but by then China will have firmly
declared Taiwan to be a de-facto province and evoke
the usual territorial protection/integrity rules
other nations employ. Serious shooting would
result and the western nations cannot sustain
a multi-front conflict.
So, if/WHEN it begins, I think Taiwan is toast.
Xi has more than enough power, and big enough
balls. Taiwan's "allies" are broke and weak and
sort-of broken.
It has been said all the high-tech stuff on the
island has been set up for self-destruct. China
will only gain territory, but little of industrial
or military advantage.
However Xi has always ranted on about the territory
itself, so, for him, that alone would be political
victory. Surviving tech would be a bonus. Likely he
already has agents in there seeking to thwart the
self-destruct operations.
When ? The ideal would be right around the US
elections. Everything will be in confusion then.
Old Joe can't really cope and K or T won't have
real political power then for months. Get Russia
to rattle a few sabres at eastern Europe and
that'll draw away a lot of US/NATO resources.