Ubiquitous
2024-10-12 02:05:06 UTC
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Permalinkis a reason for that.
Brand-new polling was released by Quinnipiac on Wednesday showing that
Harris is dropping like a stone in some of the swing states.
On September 18, when Quinnipiac conducted their last poll, Harris was
up by five points over former President Trump. Today, Trump is up three
points in that same poll, an eight-point swing in his favor.
In that same September poll, Harris was up one point in Wisconsin, but
the new poll shows Trump up two points. In Pennsylvania, where shes
spending tons of money, she was up by six; now, she leads by three.
This was predictable because the reality is that Harris has always been
a balloon. Once you puncture the balloon, the air is going to start
pouring out.
It is quite possible that Trumps vote is being underplayed because it
is extremely difficult to get low and mid-propensity voters to answer
poll questions.
If youre a person whos definitely going to vote, you want to talk to
the pollster; you want to show your support for the candidate.
But lets say theres someone who sometimes votes and sometimes
doesnt. If a pollster calls them, that person is going to say, Dude,
Im busy. I dont even care that much.
Thats the point: Trump is leading among low-propensity voters and
mid-propensity voters 52 to 45. Harris is leading among high-propensity
voters, 51 to 47.
The issue in the polling data is that its difficult to tell who is
voting for Trump and who is not because theyre not responding to phone
calls.
CNNs Priscilla Alvarez confessed, I had one source describe it to me
this way: People are nervous. They know the polls are tight and a lot
of us are having these flashbacks to 2016 too. We know when they can go
the wrong way and it can still feel fresh.
2016 is the key here. Comparing whats happening now to 2016, Donald
Trump is in a better poll position than he has been at any point in any
race he has ever run.
In the Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump leads Harris by three
in Michigan. At this point in time in 2016, Hillary Clinton had a 7.3
percentage point lead on him there. In 2020, Joe Biden had a 6.7% lead
on Trump in Michigan.
In Wisconsin, Harris is leading by about half a point. But in October
of 2020, Joe Biden was leading by five and a half points. Biden won the
state by .63 percentage points. So that is a gap of 5% from what people
thought was going to happen by polling data.
The same thing is happening in Pennsylvania. According to the latest
Pennsylvania polling for Real Clear Politics, Trump is up by 0.3
percentage points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was leading by nine; at
this point in October of 2020, Joe Biden was leading by seven.
Looking at these polling stats, it appears that Trump is in a pretty
solid position if he is getting under-polled at all.
Harris is lagging behind minority voters. Shes lagging among black
voters. Shes lagging among Hispanic voters. Shes really
underperforming, and shes going to underperform with men generally.
Kamala Harris has a very short shelf life. Politically, shes like a
bottle of milk on expiration date. There are five minutes before that
stuff starts to smell sour.
Right now, she is going sour with the American people. The American
people are sick of the brat. Theyre sick of the vibes. They dont
believe in the joy. They dont believe any of that.
Shes an empty suit. The lady is an entire mens warehouse of empty
suits.
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Let's go Brandon!