KalElFan
2015-12-10 17:35:47 UTC
[crossposts added; I didn't start the original thread on
rec.arts.tv -- it's gone about 14 posts -- but I responded
recently and now I'm adding some info]
gets and the way he dominates the news cycle, to the
point ongoing news about the actual attack itself has
taken second place the last couple of days. He has all
the pundits on the left proclaiming it's unconstitutional,
and all of his mostly Republican establishment rivals
agreeing with the left while in many cases having very
similar plans themselves (e.g. they all wanted "pauses"
on immigration until the FBI, Homeland yada yada yada
all certified that yada yada yada...)
It was specifying "Muslim" that most set the firestorm
off, but everyone knew that all the other plans were
also targeting Muslims and just couching it differently.
Thus Trump again makes his anti-PC point, and the only
question is how the latest outrage-fest will affect his
poll numbers.
Fox News did a South Carolina poll in which his before-
the-Trump-firestorm-component lead was 30%, but his
after-lead increased to 38%.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/12/09/fox-news-poll-trump-clinton-dominate-primary-races-in-south-carolina.html
"... It looks like his comments help him in South Carolina.
Support for Trump increased eight points after his
statement -- from 30 percent the first two nights vs. 38
percent the last two nights..."
That's within the sampling error and some may "blame" it
on South Carolina, but today Rasmussen has Trump's plan
favored by 66% of likely Republican voters and only 24%
are opposed (10% are undecided). Among all voters the
poll has 46% favoring, 40% opposed and 14% undecided.
The sample was 1,000, a respectable polling size, +/- 3%
with 95% confidence.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/immigration/december_2015/voters_like_trump_s_proposed_muslim_ban
So it LOOKS like the question mark I put in the subject line
may not be needed as more polls come in. If that proves
true, it'll probably mean Trump is invulnerable because
the left and the Republican establishment were all throwing
everything they had at him over this.
Much has been made of polling of Muslims and their views
on violence. Here's a link and excerpt quoting from polling
by Pew. It's followed by an actual Pew source link:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/byron-york-trump-and-muslims-by-the-numbers/article/2577962
"On the question of violence, Pew asked Muslims around
the world the following question: "Some people think that
suicide bombing and other forms of violence against civilian
targets are justified in order to defend Islam from its enemies.
Other people believe that, no matter what the reason, this
kind of violence is never justified. Do you personally feel
that this kind of violence is often justified to defend Islam,
sometimes justified, rarely justified or never justified?"
"Muslims mostly say that suicide bombings and other forms
of violence against civilians in the name of Islam are rarely
or never justified, including 92 percent in Indonesia and 91
percent in Iraq," Pew reported. On the other hand, in some
countries, the "justified" answers are quite high. In Afghanistan,
for instance, 18 percent say such violence is often justified,
21 percent say sometimes justified, 18 percent say rarely
justified and 40 percent say never justified. Four percent say
they don't know."
"In the United States, Pew found that 81 percent of U.S.
Muslims say such violence is never justified, 5 percent say
it is rarely justified, 7 percent say it is sometimes justified
and 1 percent say it is often justified. Six percent say they
don't know."
"Read the numbers however you like. Some stress that
large majorities of Muslims in the United States and in
some other countries oppose such violence under all
circumstances. Others point to those Muslims in the United
States who believe it is justified in at least some cases —
13 percent — and say that is an unacceptably high number.
And of course, Trump's proposal targets Muslims from other
places in the world coming to the United States, which
involves some Muslim-majority countries in which approval
of violence in the name of Islam is alarmingly high."
Here's the Pew article:
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/12/07/muslims-and-islam-key-findings-in-the-u-s-and-around-the-world/
"In the United States, a 2011 survey found that 86% of Muslims
say that such tactics are rarely or never justified. An additional
7% say suicide bombings are sometimes justified and 1% say
they are often justified in these circumstances..."
The above paragraph has Pew lumping the 5% who "rarely" say
it's justified with the 7% saying sometimes and 1% who say it's
often justified, so the same 13% total.
The Pew link cites a 2011 poll that estimated there were 1.8
million Muslim adults in the United States. If we ignored the
5% who said "rarely" and took only the 8% who said sometimes
or often, that would mean 1.8M * 8% = 144,000 saying violence
is sometimes or often necessary. If we took just the 1% who
say often, it's 18,000. Statistically, those from some countries
such as Afghanistan would increase the total, and perhaps most
importantly so would self-selection. ISIS is TRYING to get the
terrorists in for example, and encourage those already in the
United States. The FBI has already said they have ISIS-related
active cases / surveillance in all 50 states, but it's probably
nowhere near the 18,000 number prone to violence and/or
ISIS influence. It's not surpising some like the San Bernardino
killers can fall through the cracks, and ISIS "success" rates are
clearing rising.
rec.arts.tv -- it's gone about 14 posts -- but I responded
recently and now I'm adding some info]
The simple way to get started is to do what Carter did,
simply ban immigration from any of the predominately
Muslims countries...
... Making a list of those countries would be quite easy.
Anyone who is a citizen of the countries on that list is
not allowed in. Problem of "identifying" Muslims solved.
What's most fascinating is the knee-jerk reactions Trumpsimply ban immigration from any of the predominately
Muslims countries...
... Making a list of those countries would be quite easy.
Anyone who is a citizen of the countries on that list is
not allowed in. Problem of "identifying" Muslims solved.
gets and the way he dominates the news cycle, to the
point ongoing news about the actual attack itself has
taken second place the last couple of days. He has all
the pundits on the left proclaiming it's unconstitutional,
and all of his mostly Republican establishment rivals
agreeing with the left while in many cases having very
similar plans themselves (e.g. they all wanted "pauses"
on immigration until the FBI, Homeland yada yada yada
all certified that yada yada yada...)
It was specifying "Muslim" that most set the firestorm
off, but everyone knew that all the other plans were
also targeting Muslims and just couching it differently.
Thus Trump again makes his anti-PC point, and the only
question is how the latest outrage-fest will affect his
poll numbers.
the-Trump-firestorm-component lead was 30%, but his
after-lead increased to 38%.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/12/09/fox-news-poll-trump-clinton-dominate-primary-races-in-south-carolina.html
"... It looks like his comments help him in South Carolina.
Support for Trump increased eight points after his
statement -- from 30 percent the first two nights vs. 38
percent the last two nights..."
That's within the sampling error and some may "blame" it
on South Carolina, but today Rasmussen has Trump's plan
favored by 66% of likely Republican voters and only 24%
are opposed (10% are undecided). Among all voters the
poll has 46% favoring, 40% opposed and 14% undecided.
The sample was 1,000, a respectable polling size, +/- 3%
with 95% confidence.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/immigration/december_2015/voters_like_trump_s_proposed_muslim_ban
So it LOOKS like the question mark I put in the subject line
may not be needed as more polls come in. If that proves
true, it'll probably mean Trump is invulnerable because
the left and the Republican establishment were all throwing
everything they had at him over this.
Much has been made of polling of Muslims and their views
on violence. Here's a link and excerpt quoting from polling
by Pew. It's followed by an actual Pew source link:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/byron-york-trump-and-muslims-by-the-numbers/article/2577962
"On the question of violence, Pew asked Muslims around
the world the following question: "Some people think that
suicide bombing and other forms of violence against civilian
targets are justified in order to defend Islam from its enemies.
Other people believe that, no matter what the reason, this
kind of violence is never justified. Do you personally feel
that this kind of violence is often justified to defend Islam,
sometimes justified, rarely justified or never justified?"
"Muslims mostly say that suicide bombings and other forms
of violence against civilians in the name of Islam are rarely
or never justified, including 92 percent in Indonesia and 91
percent in Iraq," Pew reported. On the other hand, in some
countries, the "justified" answers are quite high. In Afghanistan,
for instance, 18 percent say such violence is often justified,
21 percent say sometimes justified, 18 percent say rarely
justified and 40 percent say never justified. Four percent say
they don't know."
"In the United States, Pew found that 81 percent of U.S.
Muslims say such violence is never justified, 5 percent say
it is rarely justified, 7 percent say it is sometimes justified
and 1 percent say it is often justified. Six percent say they
don't know."
"Read the numbers however you like. Some stress that
large majorities of Muslims in the United States and in
some other countries oppose such violence under all
circumstances. Others point to those Muslims in the United
States who believe it is justified in at least some cases —
13 percent — and say that is an unacceptably high number.
And of course, Trump's proposal targets Muslims from other
places in the world coming to the United States, which
involves some Muslim-majority countries in which approval
of violence in the name of Islam is alarmingly high."
Here's the Pew article:
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/12/07/muslims-and-islam-key-findings-in-the-u-s-and-around-the-world/
"In the United States, a 2011 survey found that 86% of Muslims
say that such tactics are rarely or never justified. An additional
7% say suicide bombings are sometimes justified and 1% say
they are often justified in these circumstances..."
The above paragraph has Pew lumping the 5% who "rarely" say
it's justified with the 7% saying sometimes and 1% who say it's
often justified, so the same 13% total.
The Pew link cites a 2011 poll that estimated there were 1.8
million Muslim adults in the United States. If we ignored the
5% who said "rarely" and took only the 8% who said sometimes
or often, that would mean 1.8M * 8% = 144,000 saying violence
is sometimes or often necessary. If we took just the 1% who
say often, it's 18,000. Statistically, those from some countries
such as Afghanistan would increase the total, and perhaps most
importantly so would self-selection. ISIS is TRYING to get the
terrorists in for example, and encourage those already in the
United States. The FBI has already said they have ISIS-related
active cases / surveillance in all 50 states, but it's probably
nowhere near the 18,000 number prone to violence and/or
ISIS influence. It's not surpising some like the San Bernardino
killers can fall through the cracks, and ISIS "success" rates are
clearing rising.